![]() ![]() This low will guide Henri northward in much the same fashion as classic New England hurricanes of the past. Henri’s overall steering will be controlled by a weak but sharply elongated upper-level low close to the U.S. Henri is expected to reach the Connecticut/Rhode Island coast on Sunday afternoon or evening, likely crossing Long Island, New York, just beforehand. ![]() (Image credit: NHC) Track forecast for Henri NHC forecast for Henri issued on Saturday afternoon, August 21, 2021. While Henri’s winds will be similar to those of a strong nor’easter, tree damage will be much more severe than in a winter storm, since the trees are currently in full leaf and the leaves will act like sails to catch the wind. Henri’s strength will diminish quickly as it moves inland, but the storm will still be capable of dumping torrential rain and producing gale-force winds that can knock down trees and knock out power lines. It’s important to note that there will be little difference in the anticipated impacts between a strong tropical storm and a minimal hurricane. Two top intensity models, the HMON and HWRF, insist that Henri will be only a tropical storm when it makes landfall. The main questions shaping whether Henri makes landfall as a hurricane are how strong Henri gets on Saturday and how quickly its motion slows prior to landfall. Henri will be approaching the coast more slowly than have earlier hurricanes in the area (see below), so it will have more of an opportunity to weaken. In most cases, this is too cool to sustain a tropical cyclone for long periods. On Sunday, as Henri nears New England, it will be passing over dramatically cooler waters, around 24☌ (75☏). Together, these conditions will favor Henri’s consolidation and some further strengthening. Until early Sunday, Henri will be passing over warm waters over and south of the Gulf Stream, around 28-29 degrees Celsius (82-84☏). ![]() Wind shear dropped to a light 5-10 knots on Saturday, and the atmosphere around Henri was moistening, with the mid-level relative humidity rising from around 50% to 60%. The effort left the storm somewhat lopsided, though, and at midday Saturday most of Henri’s strongest thunderstorms were displaced well southeast of the center. Henri has successfully fought off multiple days of strong wind shear. ![]()
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